If War With China Goes Kinetic
Posted on March 24th, 2008 in General by kende ||
Countries go to war when they think they have to, and figure out how to pay for it on the fly, including the old favorite “print money”.
1914 is indeed the least encouraging precedent there is. Everyone correctly said, “the great powers cannot go to war, they will ruin the world economy and all go broke.” They did it anyway, and it was worse than anyone predicted in every dimension including financial.
The financial sophistication of the Anglosphere powers over the centuries, their ability to tax and borrow and juggle the books, especially during major and protracted wars, has been possibly the singlem predominant source of strength and cause of victory. The Anglosphere powers have won every hegemonic-scale war for over three centuries. If yo have to bet, the trend is your friend.
A protracted conflict with China would be an unmitigated global catastrophe. I have a friend at PACOM who is the sharpest-clawed hawk I know. His comment, very seriously: “If conflict with China ever goes kinetic it will be the worst thing that has ever happened.” But we will ride out the catastrophe much better than China will if, God forbid, it comes to it. Their system is brittle along many axes.
Pray for peace.
From the always fantastic comments on Coming Anarchy.