I Dream Awake

Fresh off reading Gates of Fire, I’ve picked by Last of the Wine by Mary Renault. While also set in Ancient Greece, it’s very different. A good read so far. Worth picking up.

The street might know a thing or two our media-cracy doesn’t:

The last time he was in downtown New York was just after September 11th, when everything was devastated, including the NYSE. Now, more than five years later, Mr. Bush went back to downtown New York with a record-breaking stock market and a strong economic recovery.

That’s why there was loud cheering and strong applause.

Just finished Gates of Fire last night. Loved it. Highly recommended…

Japan is finally awakening to it’s role as a modern world power:

Abe took the first steps towards the “normalization” of Japanese foreign policy last week with the introduction of his constitutional revision plan at the opening of the spring parliamentary session. Said Abe, “Now is the time for us to boldly revise this postwar regime and make a new start.” It’s about time, I say.

I could only be more pleased if they did it faster.

I’m testing out the new Shelfari widget. Not completely convinced it works well yet. If it does, it’ll display a list of the books I’ve added most recently. I’ve either read or am in the process of reading everything that shows up on the list.

The State of the Union speech wasn’t bad. Best part was after it was done. Catching all that small talk was priceless.

I’d have liked the whole thing better if he had given this speech, though.

Just about like this:

“The public generally underappreciates that climate models are not meant for reducing our uncertainty about future climate, which they really cannot, but rather they are for increasing our confidence that we understand the climate system in general,” says Michael Bauer, a climate modeler at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, in New York.

In general, the simpler a system is, and the fewer the variables, the more confidence we can have in the applicability of the results of scientific studies. But climate (like humanity) is a notoriously complex and poorly-understood system, and models for either are inherently unreliable. Therefore predictions are exceedingly suspect in both areas.

And yet policy must be made. So, how to decide? Are sites such as this or this reputable? Without specialized knowledge, how can we know?

One can go by the majority opinion, and it certainly appears that the majority of scientists believe not only that global warming is real (the less controversial part of the equation), but also that it is caused at least in good part by human-generated CO2 emissions (the far more controversial part). But, historically and conceptually speaking, science is not a democracy in which the majority opinion ends up being correct in the end. And what are the political biases of these scientists? And does it matter–how much is their research affected by those biases, especially in an area such as climate change with profound political repercussions and implications? How openminded are scientists to data that threatens their point of view, the hypotheses and theories on which their reputations have been based?

The danger of bias–in science and elsewhere–is present on both sides of the political spectrum, by the way. There’s a reason my “change” series (and one of these days I plan to get back to it, by the way!) is entitled, “A mind is a difficult thing to change.” It’s not easy to reverse one’s opinion, and most people resist and defend against data that challenges it, even scientists.

The history of science is replete with theories that have had their day in the sun and then departed, to be heard of no more (except in History of Science courses). As evidence amasses and knowledge grows, old theories are discarded and new ones take their place. We don’t know when that tipping point will occur in any particular scientific discipline, but I do know that almost every theory in its earlier stages (especially in the “softer” areas of science) has areas of confusion and data that don’t fit into the big picture. As time passes, either the theory is able to explain that data, or it collapses in the face of it. Global warming is an area replete with these anomalies at the moment.

But with enough of a strong foundation in science to get a lot of those technicalities she isn’t comfortable with. The data still reads as excessively uncertain to model any predictions on.

There is plenty we should be doing anyway, but it’s all about increasing economic strength, technological advance, climate study, and energy diversification. Those are good whether the we are looking at Global Warming, Global Cooling, or just normal (highly complex) oscillations.

I want this sooooooo bad.

Yeah, I’ve heard almost the exact same words far too many times.

Democratic Undergrounder 1: “Dude, Bush is a god-damn fascist. I asked everyone I know and like no one voted for him! Patriot Act, wiretaps made easier, locking up people in Guantanamo Bay without a trial… he’s like some whacked out Christian dictator!”

Democratic Undergrounder 2: “Yeah man! It’s so good to see Chavez in Venezuela sticking it to Bush’s buddies in the oil business! He’s gonna make Venezuela totally free now!

Democratic Undergrounder 1: “That’s right! Did you hear? He’s been given powers to rule by decree and now he can close down opposition newspapers, silence non-socialist radio stations and throw his political enemy’s asses in jail if they don’t do whatever his decree says.”

Democratic Undergrounder 2: “Woah, cool! One day I hope we’re as free as that in the USA!”

What do I have to do to become as smart as these (marginally fictional) guys?

Huh. I didn’t know there are 18 million Azeris in Iran. Makes these developments in Azerbaijan all the more interesting. Not that it could get much more interesting than a choice between topless female singers and bearded theocrats…

Mix in 6 million Kurds, 3 million Arabs, and 2 million Balochis all wanting out from Persian Shia domination, and things could get quite combustable in the land of fire (birthplace of Zoroastrianism).

Hmm. Yeah… That choice may not be so tough after all.

Closed, originally uploaded by aremac.

I wish more bodegas looked this pretty when closed…

The Lifeboat foundation has a blog and I feel just a wee bit better as the singularity approacheth.

Netanyahu speaks out against Iran:

“When we are talking about rallying public opinion on genocide, who will lead the charge if not us?” he said. “No one will come defend the Jews if they no not defend themselves. This is the lesson of history.”

Will anyone listen? Will Israel and the West do anything?

Those of you who are ducking and covering in the wake of the announcement that Neteller will no longer process payments to online gambling or poker sites need to take a step back for a few moments and look at the bigger picture here. The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act is not about stopping you from playing your favorite game online for the stakes of your choice. It’s merely another front in a widespread attack on your right to do anything of your own choosing that doesn’t hurt another person. It’s about erasing the rights of local and state communities to make decisions on what their own standards should be and coercing them into following a federal mandate. There’s a pattern that’s very easy to recognize if you widen your vision.

It’s not as extreme (no where near it) as my title suggests, but this is a good example of how a free people only have those rights we actively use and speak up to defend. To assume the all too important petty freedoms we take for granted will continue to be there for us if we neglect them is rooted in a complete ignorance of history, past and present.

How high can I fall?

Adding a list of most recent tracks listened to on Last.fm to my sidebar. Should be up in a few.

…Has looked a lot like this recently.

O’Reilly on Colbert, Colbert on O’Reilly.

I think there’s as much of a difference between the free vs. regressive right or the (vanishing) free vs. (increasingly) regressive left as there is between the generalized right vs. left. So while it might not fit a binary view of the spectrum, I would have to agree that O’Reilly isn’t any kind of right I would relate to. It’s still fun to watch how crazy he makes the left, though.

In this corner:

A leading climatologist on the Weather Channel in the United States has caused a squall in the industry by arguing that any weather forecaster who dares publicly to question the notion that global warming is a manmade phenomenon should be stripped of their professional certification.

…”It’s like allowing a meteorologist to go on-air and say that hurricanes rotate clockwise and tsunamis are caused by the weather,” she wrote in her internet blog. “It’s not a political statement… it’s just an incorrect statement.”

And in the challenger’s corner, our champion of reason, looking to put the reigning climate hype-ologist on ice :

Well, well. Some “climate expert” on “The Weather Channel” wants to take away AMS certification from those of us who believe the recent “global warming” is a natural process. So much for “tolerance”, huh?

I have been in operational meteorology since 1978, and I know dozens and dozens of broadcast meteorologists all over the country. Our big job: look at a large volume of raw data and come up with a public weather forecast for the next seven days. I do not know of a single TV meteorologist who buys into the man-made global warming hype. I know there must be a few out there, but I can’t find them. Here are the basic facts you need to know:

Billions of dollars of grant money is flowing into the pockets of those on the man-made global warming bandwagon. No man-made global warming, the money dries up. This is big money, make no mistake about it. Always follow the money trail and it tells a story. Even the lady at “The Weather Channel” probably gets paid good money for a prime time show on climate change. No man-made global warming, no show, and no salary. Nothing wrong with making money at all, but when money becomes the motivation for a scientific conclusion, then we have a problem. For many, global warming is a big cash grab.

The climate of this planet has been changing since God put the planet here. It will always change, and the warming in the last 10 years is not much difference than the warming we saw in the 1930s and other decades. And, lets not forget we are at the end of the ice age in which ice covered most of North America and Northern Europe.

If you don’t like to listen to me, find another meteorologist with no tie to grant money for research on the subject. I would not listen to anyone that is a politician, a journalist, or someone in science who is generating revenue from this issue.

Watch the rest of the brawl here on not quite live free-pay-per-view.

You’d think being so hyper intelligent and all, actors would know better than to grandstand on stuff they know nothing about…

Ok, maybe not:

Robert Redford: “I believe in the tenets of democracy, and when they get pushed, it pisses me off.”

Karol Sheinen: I believe in more than just the tenets of democracy, I believe in democracy in totality as a force of good in the world. I believe Iraq, and the Middle East, will be better as a Democracy. What pisses me off is brutal dictatorship, where there are human shredders and prisons for children. Indiscriminate murder, mayhem, multiple wars with neighboring countries, and the pursuit of serious weapons by a madman, piss me off more than anything George W. Bush has ever done or hope to do.

If you are scoring at home, it’s Karol for the win.

Karol walked into a Duane Reade on the UES while it was being held up. She’s safe, thankfully. No one else was hurt either. It might be completely irrational but it feels like this is happening more often. I can list 3 people off the top of my head who have been held up at gun point in the last few months. I hope it’s just coincidence.

“I want to be faster” by way of Signal vs. Noise.

…in Japan. A very useful primer from the ever helpful folks at Coming Anarchy.

By way of Gothamist, another reason to want to pick up the compulsion that is photoblogging. How can someone see a shot like this and not rush to have a camera in their hands all day every day?

Looking for a new theme to use for a base to tweak to my liking. Thinking of going with a simple black background and two columns, to start with.

Know who you support for President in 2008 yet? No? Tsk. Tsk.

Figure it out quick… The voting’s already started!

DSCF4618, originally uploaded by n-chromatic.

My favorite photo of the day, from a quick blitz of pic taking yesterday. I’ve been told I share an uncanny resemblance. For those who aren’t clear what uncanny means (no, of course I’m not talking about the only person who knows what I’m talking about here), here’s that dictionary definition one more time. Oh, and yes, I do win.

Wittiest remark of the day courtesy of the Marketing Matters blog.

It’s bad enough that almost everyone who saw An Inconvenient Truth thinks they are scientists because of it. Now some schmuck wants to silence all scientific debate challenging Global Warming theory as the most accurate interpretation of the climate data we have.

Another stunning artist I found while traipsing around online.